The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) recently decided to jointly contest the Punjab Assembly elections, scheduled for early next year. The announcement set the tone for the next polls, although savvy political observers believe the alliance may not deliver the “desired” results for either party.

In Punjab, which has the highest percentage of Dalit population among states at nearly 32%, the BSP used the Dalit vote as a political plank for the first time in 1992. However, since then the party has received a declining response in the state. In 1992 it won over 16% of the vote, winning nine seats in the Punjab, but that figure fell to around 4% in the 2012 Assembly polls. In 2017, the BSP’s percentage of votes reached a new low of 1.5%. Now, with the new alliance, the BSP is trying to stay “relevant” in state policy.

On the other hand, the SAD has faced the wrath of the farming community, its main base of support, which demands the repeal of the three agricultural laws. The party hopes to neutralize its negative political impact through the newly formed alliance, hoping to win the votes of the listed castes.

The parties are aware of the importance of Dalit votes and have spared no effort to collect them. The newly formed alliance is seen as essential for the SAD, especially after breaking its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the issue of agricultural laws. The SAD has already announced that it will appoint a Dalit as chief deputy minister if he forms the next government.

Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at the University of Punjab and author of Electoral politics in Punjab: factors and phases believes that the SAD-BSP alliance is nothing more than a polling point of view, which will be insignificant in future polls. “This alliance will not have a major impact on the electoral result. The BSP has an almost negligible presence in the State. He lost his base of support. His last victory was a seat in the Assembly in 1997. The SC are divided not only according to caste, but also along religious lines. BSP barely has a base on which Akali Dal could capitalize, ”he said. The Hindu.

“On the other hand, the SAD risks even losing the traditional base of support surrounding Bargari’s sacrilege in 2015 and the police shooting incident that followed. Akalis supporting the Jats (the farming community) is unlikely to go for the Dalit candidates. Ultimately, there would be virtually no significant gain for either party, ”Kumar added.

On June 6, the SAD-BSP signed an electoral alliance for the 2022 Assembly polls, in which the SAD will contest 97 seats and the BSP 20 – including eight seats in the Doaba region, seven in Malwa and five in the Majha region of the state. . There are a total of 117 Assembly constituencies in the Punjab.

Ronki Ram, Shaheed Bhaghat Singh Professor of Political Science at the University of Punjab, pointed out that SAD and BSP are currently entangled in their respective adverse political circumstances. “If SAD is struggling to maintain its heritage status – being a panthic party of Sikhs – so as not to defend the interests of the state’s farmers, who are mostly Jat Sikhs, BSP is at least struggling. to stay alive in his birthplace, ”he said.

“Also, given the divisive factor of the caste division in the state, it seems quite unlikely that the votes from the SC will be transferred to the SAD. In addition, the Punjab’s CSs, like their counterparts in other parts of the country, do not form a homogeneous category. They are sharply divided into 39 castes among themselves and further fragmented into different religions and syncretic denominations, which metamorphosed into deras. The SAD-BSP alliance cannot garner SC votes for SAD across socio-religious divisions within Dalits. Likewise, the BSP may also have to pay the price of signing the alliance with the SAD. BSP SC affiliates who were uncomfortable with SAD might want to disassociate themselves from the former for its political marriage of convenience, ”said Mr Ram.